Estimate a probability with FORM

In this basic example we are going to estimate a failure probability with the FORM algorithm and exploit all the associated results:

  • the design point in both physical and standard space,

  • the probability estimation accoding to the FORM approximation, and the following SORM ones: Tvedt, Hohen-Bichler and Breitung,

  • the Hasofer reliability index and the generalized ones evaluated from the Breitung, Tvedt and Hohen-Bichler approximations,

  • the importance factors defined as the normalized director factors of the design point in the U-space

  • the sensitivity factors of the Hasofer reliability index and the FORM probability.

  • the coordinates of the mean point in the standard event space: \displaystyle \frac{1}{E_1(-\beta)}\int_{\beta}^{\infty} u_1 p_1(u_1)du_1 where E_1 is the spheric univariate distribution of the standard space and \beta the reliability index.

Let’s consider the following analytical example of a cantilever beam, of Young’s modulus E, length L, section modulus I.

One end is built in a wall and we apply a concentrated bending load F at the other end of the beam, resulting in a deviation:

d = \frac{F*L^3}{3*E*I}

It is considered that failure occurs when the beam deviation is too important:

d \ge 30 (cm)

Four independent random variables are considered:

  • E (the Young’s modulus) [Pa]

  • F (the load) [N]

  • L (the length) # [m]

  • I (the section) # [m^4]

Stochastic model (simplified model, no units):

  • E ~ Beta(0.93, 3.2, 2.8e7, 4.8e7)

  • F ~ LogNormal(30000, 9000, 15000)

  • L ~ Uniform(250, 260)

  • I ~ Beta(2.5, 4.0, 3.1e2, 4.5e2)

[1]:
from __future__ import print_function
import openturns as ot
[2]:
# Create the marginal distributions of the parameters
dist_E = ot.Beta(0.93, 2.27, 2.8e7, 4.8e7)
dist_F = ot.LogNormalMuSigma(30000, 9000, 15000).getDistribution()
dist_L = ot.Uniform(250, 260)
dist_I = ot.Beta(2.5, 1.5, 3.1e2, 4.5e2)
marginals = [dist_E, dist_F, dist_L, dist_I]
[3]:
# Create the Copula
RS = ot.CorrelationMatrix(4)
RS[2, 3] = -0.2
# Evaluate the correlation matrix of the Normal copula from RS
R = ot.NormalCopula.GetCorrelationFromSpearmanCorrelation(RS)
# Create the Normal copula parametrized by R
copula = ot.NormalCopula(R)
[4]:
# Create the joint probability distribution
distribution = ot.ComposedDistribution(marginals, copula)
distribution.setDescription(['E', 'F', 'L', 'I'])
[5]:
# create the model
model = ot.SymbolicFunction(['E', 'F', 'L', 'I'], ['F*L^3/(3*E*I)'])
[6]:
# create the event we want to estimate the probability
vect = ot.RandomVector(distribution)
G = ot.CompositeRandomVector(model, vect)
event = ot.Event(G, ot.Greater(), 30.0)
event.setName("deviation")
[7]:
# Define a solver
optimAlgo = ot.Cobyla()
optimAlgo.setMaximumEvaluationNumber(1000)
optimAlgo.setMaximumAbsoluteError(1.0e-10)
optimAlgo.setMaximumRelativeError(1.0e-10)
optimAlgo.setMaximumResidualError(1.0e-10)
optimAlgo.setMaximumConstraintError(1.0e-10)
[8]:
# Run FORM
algo = ot.FORM(optimAlgo, event, distribution.getMean())
algo.run()
result = algo.getResult()
[9]:
# Probability
result.getEventProbability()
[9]:
0.00670980426490075
[10]:
# Hasofer reliability index
result.getHasoferReliabilityIndex()
[10]:
2.472435078752299
[11]:
# Design point in the standard U* space
result.getStandardSpaceDesignPoint()
[11]:

[-0.602386,2.31056,0.355794,-0.533677]

[12]:
# Design point in the physical X space
result.getPhysicalSpaceDesignPoint()
[12]:

[3.03272e+07,61318.5,256.39,378.635]

[13]:
# Importance factors
result.drawImportanceFactors()
[13]:
../../_images/examples_reliability_sensitivity_estimate_probability_form_14_0.svg
[14]:
marginalSensitivity, otherSensitivity = result.drawHasoferReliabilityIndexSensitivity()
marginalSensitivity.setLegendPosition('bottom')
marginalSensitivity
[14]:
../../_images/examples_reliability_sensitivity_estimate_probability_form_15_0.svg
[15]:
marginalSensitivity, otherSensitivity = result.drawEventProbabilitySensitivity()
marginalSensitivity
[15]:
../../_images/examples_reliability_sensitivity_estimate_probability_form_16_0.svg
[16]:
# Error history
optimResult = result.getOptimizationResult()
graphErrors = optimResult.drawErrorHistory()
graphErrors.setLegendPosition('bottom')
graphErrors.setYMargin(0.0)
graphErrors
[16]:
../../_images/examples_reliability_sensitivity_estimate_probability_form_17_0.svg
[17]:
# Get additional results with SORM
algo = ot.SORM(optimAlgo, event, distribution.getMean())
algo.run()
sorm_result = algo.getResult()
[18]:
# Reliability index with Breitung approximation
sorm_result.getGeneralisedReliabilityIndexBreitung()
[18]:
2.543869068257457
[19]:
# ... with HohenBichler approximation
sorm_result.getGeneralisedReliabilityIndexHohenBichler()
[19]:
2.551468863449899
[20]:
# .. with Tvedt approximation
sorm_result.getGeneralisedReliabilityIndexTvedt()
[20]:
2.5536673993057577
[21]:
# SORM probability of the event with Breitung approximation
sorm_result.getEventProbabilityBreitung()
[21]:
0.0054816085317681675
[22]:
# ... with HohenBichler approximation
sorm_result.getEventProbabilityHohenBichler()
[22]:
0.005363495427297016
[23]:
# ... with Tvedt approximation
sorm_result.getEventProbabilityTvedt()
[23]:
0.005329751264685826