# ProbabilitySimulationAlgorithm¶

class ProbabilitySimulationAlgorithm(*args)

Iterative sampling methods.

Available constructor:

ProbabilitySimulationAlgorithm(event, experiment, verbose=True, convergenceStrategy=ot.Compact())

ProbabilitySimulationAlgorithm(event, verbose=True, convergenceStrategy=ot.Compact())

Parameters: event : Event The event we are computing the probability of, must be composite. experiment : WeightedExperiment Sequential experiment verbose : bool, optional If True, make the computation verbose. convergenceStrategy : HistoryStrategy, optional Storage strategy used to store the values of the probability estimator and its variance during the simulation algorithm.

Notes

Using the probability distribution of a random vector , we seek to evaluate the following probability:

Here, is a random vector, a deterministic vector, the function known as limit state function which enables the definition of the event

If we have the set of independent samples of the random vector , we can estimate as follows:

where describes the indicator function equal to 1 if and equal to 0 otherwise; the idea here is in fact to estimate the required probability by the proportion of cases, among the samples of , for which the event occurs.

By the law of large numbers, we know that this estimation converges to the required value as the sample size tends to infinity.

The Central Limit Theorem allows to build an asymptotic confidence interval using the normal limit distribution as follows:

with , and is the -quantile of the standard normal distribution.

A ProbabilitySimulationAlgorithm object makes sense with the following sequential experiments:

The estimator built by Monte Carlo method is:

where describes the indicator function equal to 1 if and equal to 0 otherwise; the idea here is in fact to estimate the required probability by the proportion of cases, among the samples of , for which the event occurs.

By the law of large numbers, we know that this estimation converges to the required value as the sample size tends to infinity.

The Central Limit Theorem allows to build an asymptotic confidence interval using the normal limit distribution as follows:

with , and is the -quantile of the standard normal distribution.

The estimator built by Importance Sampling method is:

where:

• is the total number of computations,
• the random vectors are independent, identically distributed and following the probability density function .

Examples

Estimate a probability by Monte Carlo

>>> import openturns as ot
>>> ot.RandomGenerator.SetSeed(0)
>>> myFunction = ot.SymbolicFunction(['E', 'F', 'L', 'I'], ['-F*L^3/(3*E*I)'])
>>> myDistribution = ot.Normal([50.0, 1.0, 10.0, 5.0], [1.0]*4, ot.IdentityMatrix(4))
>>> # We create a 'usual' RandomVector from the Distribution
>>> vect = ot.RandomVector(myDistribution)
>>> # We create a composite random vector
>>> output = ot.CompositeRandomVector(myFunction, vect)
>>> # We create an Event from this RandomVector
>>> myEvent = ot.Event(output, ot.Less(), -3.0)
>>> # We create a Monte Carlo algorithm
>>> experiment = ot.MonteCarloExperiment()
>>> myAlgo = ot.ProbabilitySimulationAlgorithm(myEvent, experiment)
>>> myAlgo.setMaximumOuterSampling(150)
>>> myAlgo.setBlockSize(4)
>>> myAlgo.setMaximumCoefficientOfVariation(0.1)
>>> # Perform the simulation
>>> myAlgo.run()
>>> print('Probability estimate=%.6f' % myAlgo.getResult().getProbabilityEstimate())
Probability estimate=0.140000


Estimate a probability by Importance Sampling

>>> ot.RandomGenerator.SetSeed(0)
>>> myImportance = ot.Normal([49.969, 1.84194, 10.4454, 4.66776], [1.0]*4, ot.IdentityMatrix(4))
>>> experiment = ot.ImportanceSamplingExperiment(myImportance)
>>> myAlgo = ot.ProbabilitySimulationAlgorithm(myEvent, experiment)
>>> myAlgo.setMaximumOuterSampling(150)
>>> myAlgo.setBlockSize(4)
>>> myAlgo.setMaximumCoefficientOfVariation(0.1)
>>> # Perform the simulation
>>> myAlgo.run()
>>> print('Probability estimate=%.6f' % myAlgo.getResult().getProbabilityEstimate())
Probability estimate=0.153314


Estimate a probability by Quasi Monte Carlo

>>> ot.RandomGenerator.SetSeed(0)
>>> experiment = ot.LowDiscrepancyExperiment()
>>> myAlgo = ot.ProbabilitySimulationAlgorithm(myEvent, experiment)
>>> myAlgo.setMaximumOuterSampling(150)
>>> myAlgo.setBlockSize(4)
>>> myAlgo.setMaximumCoefficientOfVariation(0.1)
>>> # Perform the simulation
>>> myAlgo.run()
>>> print('Probability estimate=%.6f' % myAlgo.getResult().getProbabilityEstimate())
Probability estimate=0.141667


Estimate a probability by Randomized Quasi Monte Carlo

>>> ot.RandomGenerator.SetSeed(0)
>>> experiment = ot.LowDiscrepancyExperiment()
>>> experiment.setRandomize(True)
>>> myAlgo = ot.ProbabilitySimulationAlgorithm(myEvent, experiment)
>>> myAlgo.setMaximumOuterSampling(150)
>>> myAlgo.setBlockSize(4)
>>> myAlgo.setMaximumCoefficientOfVariation(0.1)
>>> # Perform the simulation
>>> myAlgo.run()
>>> print('Probability estimate=%.6f' % myAlgo.getResult().getProbabilityEstimate())
Probability estimate=0.145000


Estimate a probability by Randomized LHS

>>> ot.RandomGenerator.SetSeed(0)
>>> experiment = ot.LHSExperiment()
>>> experiment.setAlwaysShuffle(True)
>>> myAlgo = ot.ProbabilitySimulationAlgorithm(myEvent, experiment)
>>> myAlgo.setMaximumOuterSampling(150)
>>> myAlgo.setBlockSize(4)
>>> myAlgo.setMaximumCoefficientOfVariation(0.1)
>>> # Perform the simulation
>>> myAlgo.run()
>>> print('Probability estimate=%.6f' % myAlgo.getResult().getProbabilityEstimate())
Probability estimate=0.140000


Methods

 drawProbabilityConvergence(*args) Draw the probability convergence at a given level. getBlockSize() Accessor to the block size. getClassName() Accessor to the object’s name. getConvergenceStrategy() Accessor to the convergence strategy. getEvent() Accessor to the event. getExperiment() Accessor to the experiment. getId() Accessor to the object’s id. getMaximumCoefficientOfVariation() Accessor to the maximum coefficient of variation. getMaximumOuterSampling() Accessor to the maximum sample size. getMaximumStandardDeviation() Accessor to the maximum standard deviation. getName() Accessor to the object’s name. getResult() Accessor to the results. getShadowedId() Accessor to the object’s shadowed id. getVerbose() Accessor to verbosity. getVisibility() Accessor to the object’s visibility state. hasName() Test if the object is named. hasVisibleName() Test if the object has a distinguishable name. run() Launch simulation. setBlockSize(blockSize) Accessor to the block size. setConvergenceStrategy(convergenceStrategy) Accessor to the convergence strategy. setExperiment(experiment) Accessor to the experiment. setMaximumCoefficientOfVariation(…) Accessor to the maximum coefficient of variation. setMaximumOuterSampling(maximumOuterSampling) Accessor to the maximum sample size. setMaximumStandardDeviation(…) Accessor to the maximum standard deviation. setName(name) Accessor to the object’s name. setProgressCallback(*args) Set up a progress callback. setShadowedId(id) Accessor to the object’s shadowed id. setStopCallback(*args) Set up a stop callback. setVerbose(verbose) Accessor to verbosity. setVisibility(visible) Accessor to the object’s visibility state.
__init__(*args)

Initialize self. See help(type(self)) for accurate signature.

drawProbabilityConvergence(*args)

Draw the probability convergence at a given level.

Parameters: level : float, optional The probability convergence is drawn at this given confidence length level. By default level is 0.95. graph : probability convergence graph
getBlockSize()

Accessor to the block size.

Returns: blockSize : int Number of terms in the probability simulation estimator grouped together. It is set by default to 1.
getClassName()

Accessor to the object’s name.

Returns: class_name : str The object class name (object.__class__.__name__).
getConvergenceStrategy()

Accessor to the convergence strategy.

Returns: storage_strategy : HistoryStrategy Storage strategy used to store the values of the probability estimator and its variance during the simulation algorithm.
getEvent()

Accessor to the event.

Returns: event : Event Event we want to evaluate the probability.
getExperiment()

Accessor to the experiment.

Returns: experiment : WeightedExperiment The experiment that is sampled at each iteration.
getId()

Accessor to the object’s id.

Returns: id : int Internal unique identifier.
getMaximumCoefficientOfVariation()

Accessor to the maximum coefficient of variation.

Returns: coefficient : float Maximum coefficient of variation of the simulated sample.
getMaximumOuterSampling()

Accessor to the maximum sample size.

Returns: outerSampling : int Maximum number of groups of terms in the probability simulation estimator.
getMaximumStandardDeviation()

Accessor to the maximum standard deviation.

Returns: sigma : float, Maximum standard deviation of the estimator.
getName()

Accessor to the object’s name.

Returns: name : str The name of the object.
getResult()

Accessor to the results.

Returns: results : SimulationResult Structure containing all the results obtained after simulation and created by the method run().
getShadowedId()

Accessor to the object’s shadowed id.

Returns: id : int Internal unique identifier.
getVerbose()

Accessor to verbosity.

Returns: verbosity_enabled : bool If True, the computation is verbose. By default it is verbose.
getVisibility()

Accessor to the object’s visibility state.

Returns: visible : bool Visibility flag.
hasName()

Test if the object is named.

Returns: hasName : bool True if the name is not empty.
hasVisibleName()

Test if the object has a distinguishable name.

Returns: hasVisibleName : bool True if the name is not empty and not the default one.
run()

Launch simulation.

Notes

It launches the simulation and creates a SimulationResult, structure containing all the results obtained after simulation. It computes the probability of occurence of the given event by computing the empirical mean of a sample of size at most outerSampling * blockSize, this sample being built by blocks of size blockSize. It allows to use efficiently the distribution of the computation as well as it allows to deal with a sample size by a combination of blockSize and outerSampling.

setBlockSize(blockSize)

Accessor to the block size.

Parameters: blockSize : int, Number of terms in the probability simulation estimator grouped together. It is set by default to 1.

Notes

For Monte Carlo, LHS and Importance Sampling methods, this allows to save space while allowing multithreading, when available we recommend to use the number of available CPUs; for the Directional Sampling, we recommend to set it to 1.

setConvergenceStrategy(convergenceStrategy)

Accessor to the convergence strategy.

Parameters: storage_strategy : HistoryStrategy Storage strategy used to store the values of the probability estimator and its variance during the simulation algorithm.
setExperiment(experiment)

Accessor to the experiment.

Parameters: experiment : WeightedExperiment The experiment that is sampled at each iteration.
setMaximumCoefficientOfVariation(maximumCoefficientOfVariation)

Accessor to the maximum coefficient of variation.

Parameters: coefficient : float Maximum coefficient of variation of the simulated sample.
setMaximumOuterSampling(maximumOuterSampling)

Accessor to the maximum sample size.

Parameters: outerSampling : int Maximum number of groups of terms in the probability simulation estimator.
setMaximumStandardDeviation(maximumStandardDeviation)

Accessor to the maximum standard deviation.

Parameters: sigma : float, Maximum standard deviation of the estimator.
setName(name)

Accessor to the object’s name.

Parameters: name : str The name of the object.
setProgressCallback(*args)

Set up a progress callback.

Parameters: callback : callable Takes a float as argument as percentage of progress.
setShadowedId(id)

Accessor to the object’s shadowed id.

Parameters: id : int Internal unique identifier.
setStopCallback(*args)

Set up a stop callback.

Parameters: callback : callable Returns an int deciding whether to stop or continue.
setVerbose(verbose)

Accessor to verbosity.

Parameters: verbosity_enabled : bool If True, make the computation verbose. By default it is verbose.
setVisibility(visible)

Accessor to the object’s visibility state.

Parameters: visible : bool Visibility flag.